The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks

Modern plague outbreaks exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern. By contrast, the seasonality of historical outbreaks and its drivers has not been studied systematically. Here, we investigate the seasonal pattern, the epidemic peak timing and growth rates, and the association with latitude, temperature, and precipitation using a large, novel dataset of plague- and all-cause mortality during the Second Pandemic in Europe and the Mediterranean. We show that epidemic peak timing followed a latitudinal gradient, with mean annual temperature negatively associated with peak timing. Based on modern temperature data, the predicted epidemic growth of all outbreaks was positive between 11.7 degrees C and 21.5 degrees C with a maximum around 17.3 degrees C. Hence, our study provides evidence that the growth of plague epidemics across the whole study region depended on similar absolute temperature thresholds. Here, we present a systematic analysis of the seasonality of historical plague in the Northern Hemisphere, and we show consistent evidence for a temperature-related process influencing the epidemic peak timing and growth rates of plague epidemics.

Automated summary

This study systematically analyzes the seasonality of historical plague in the Northern Hemisphere, and provides consistent evidence that temperature-related processes influence the epidemic peak timing and growth rates of plague outbreaks. The research shows that epidemic peak timing follows a latitudinal gradient, with mean annual temperature negatively associated with peak timing, and the growth of plague epidemics across the entire study region depends on similar absolute temperature thresholds.