Challenges in providing residual risks in carrier testing

The probability an individual is a carrier for a recessive disorder despite a negative carrier test, referred to as residual risk, has been part of carrier screening for over 2 decades. Residual risks are calculated by subtracting the frequency of carriers of pathogenic variants detected by the test from the carrier frequency in a population, estimated from the incidence of the disease. Estimates of the incidence (and therefore carrier frequency) of many recessive disorders differ among different population groups and are inaccurate or unavailable for many genes on large carrier screening panels for most of the world's populations. The pathogenic variants detected by the test and their frequencies also vary across groups and over time as variants are newly discovered or reclassified, which requires today's residual carrier risks to be continually updated. Even when a residual carrier risk is derived using accurate data obtained in a particular group, it may not apply to many individuals in that group because of misattributed ancestry or unsuspected admixture. Missing or inaccurate data, the challenge of determining meaningful ancestry-specific risks and applying them appropriately, and a lack of evidence they impact management, suggest that patients be counseled that although carrier screening may miss a small fraction of carriers, residual risks with contemporary carrier screening are well below the risk posed by invasive prenatal diagnosis, even if one member of the couple is a carrier, and that efforts to provide precise residual carrier risks are unnecessary.

Automated summary

Residual carrier risks, despite being a significant part of carrier screening for over two decades, face challenges due to variability in gene frequencies among different population groups, which impacts the accuracy of these risks.