Journal
JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY
Volume 73, Issue 8, Pages 1856-1872Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2021.1931496
Keywords
sport; outcome uncertainty; competitive balance; forecasting; netball; tactics
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The study introduces the binomial-match model as a challenger to the Poisson-match, primarily for studying the relationship between outcome uncertainty and scoring-rate in sports competitions. The binomial-match is not a better forecaster than the Poisson-match, but it is better for representing outcome uncertainty and evaluating rule-variations and tactics, particularly in the context of netball.
We introduce the binomial-match as a model for the bivariate score in a paired-contest. This model is naturally associated with sports in which the restart alternates following a goal. The model is a challenger to the Poisson-match, a pair of independent Poisson random variables whose means are related to the strengths of the competing teams. We use the binomial-match primarily to study the relationship between outcome uncertainty and scoring-rate, particularly for high values of the scoring-rate. Netball has a high scoring-rate and motivates our model development. In the binomial-match framework, we also evaluate rule-variations, and study tactical play in netball. Our analysis suggests that the binomial-match is not a better forecaster than the Poisson-match, but it is better for representing outcome uncertainty and evaluating rule-variations and tactics. In general, we find that the binomial-match implies greater outcome uncertainty than the Poisson match, for a given scoring-rate, and that an alternating-restart is a good rule for reducing the frequency of tied outcomes. For netball in particular, we show that starting the final quarter with possession in a close, balanced match may confer a significant advantage.
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