Journal
JOURNAL OF PERINATOLOGY
Volume 41, Issue 9, Pages 2173-2181Publisher
SPRINGERNATURE
DOI: 10.1038/s41372-021-01109-3
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Funding
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) [151520]
- Tier II CIHR Canada Research Chair [950-229920]
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The study developed risk prediction models for singleton preterm birth < 28 weeks, utilizing variables from the first and second trimester in a retrospective cohort. The models showed acceptable performance with good calibration in both the first and second trimester.
Objective To develop risk prediction models for singleton preterm birth (PTB) < 28 weeks and Methods Using a retrospective cohort of 267,226 singleton births in Ontario hospitals, we included variables from the first and second trimester in multivariable logistic regression models to predict overall and spontaneous PTB < 28 weeks and Results During the first trimester, the area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of PTB < 28 weeks for nulliparous and multiparous women was 68.5% (95% CI: 63.5-73.6%) and 73.4% (68.6-78.2%), respectively, while for PTB < 32 weeks it was 68.9% (65.5-72.3%) and 75.5% (72.3-78.7%), respectively. AUCs for second-trimester models were 72.4% (95% CI: 69.7-75.1%) and 78.2% (95% CI: 75.8-80.5%), respectively, in nulliparous and multiparous women. Predicted probabilities were well-calibrated within a wide range around expected base prevalence for the study outcomes. Conclusions Our prediction models generated acceptable AUCs for PTB < 28 weeks and <32 weeks with good calibration during the first and second trimester.
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