Variability of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in China

The reported decreasing trend of the annual tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in southern China and increasing trend in southeastern China in recent decades are confirmed to be an abrupt shift occurring at the end of the twentieth century, based on a statistical analysis. The opposite trends in the two adjacent regions are often considered to be a result of tropical cyclone landfalls in southern China being deflected northward. However, it is demonstrated in this study that they are phenomenally independent. In fact, the abrupt decrease of TC landfalls in southern China occurs as a result of an abrupt decrease of the westward events in the postpeak season (October-December), which in turn is a consequence of a significant decrease of the TC genesis frequency in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean basin. On the other hand, the abrupt increase of TC landfalls in southeastern China occurs because of an abrupt increase of the northwest events in the peak season (July-September), as the consequence of a statistically westward shift of TC genesis. The relevant variations of TC genesis are shown to be mainly caused by decreased relative vorticity and increased vertical wind shear, which, however, are intrinsically related to the accelerated zonal atmospheric circulation driven by a La Nina-like sea surface warming pattern over the WNP that developed after the end of twentieth century.

Automated summary

This study confirms a sudden shift in the trend of tropical cyclone landfalls in southern and southeastern China at the end of the twentieth century. The decrease in southern China is attributed to a decrease in westward events, while the increase in southeastern China is linked to an increase in northwest events during peak season. These variations are mainly caused by changes in relative vorticity and vertical wind shear.