Assessing the Role of Air-Sea Coupling in Predicting Madden-Julian Oscillation with an Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Model

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) provides an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. Improved MJO prediction can be beneficial to S2S prediction of global climate and associated weather extremes. In this study, hindcasts based on an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (CGCM) are compared to those based on atmosphere general circulation models (AGCMs) to investigate influences of air-sea interactions on MJO prediction. Our results suggest that MJO prediction skill can be extended about 1 week longer in the CGCM hindcasts than AGCM-only experiments, particularly for boreal winter predictions. Further analysis suggests that improved MJO prediction in the CGCM is closely associated with improved representation of moistening processes. Compared to the AGCM experiments, the CGCM better predicts the boundary layer moisture preconditioning to the east of MJO convection, which is generally considered crucial for triggering MJO deep convection. Meanwhile, the widely extended east-west asymmetric structure in free-tropospheric moisture tendency anomalies relative to the MJO convection center as seen in the observations is also well predicted in the CGCM. Improved prediction of MJO moisture processes in CGCM is closely associated with better representation of the zonal scale of MJO circulation and stronger Kelvin waves to the east of MJO convection, both of which have been recently suggested to be conducive to MJO eastward propagation. The above improvements by including air-sea coupling could be largely attributed to the realistic MJO-induced SST fluctuations through the convection-SST feedback. This study confirms a critical role of atmosphere-ocean coupling for the improvement of MJO prediction.

Automated summary

This study compares MJO predictions based on an atmosphere-ocean coupled model and atmosphere models, finding that the CGCM model shows better performance, particularly in predicting moistening processes and boundary layer moisture preconditioning. Improved prediction of MJO moisture processes in CGCM is associated with better representation of MJO circulation and stronger Kelvin waves, which contribute to MJO eastward propagation. The study confirms the critical role of atmosphere-ocean coupling in improving MJO prediction.