Spatial and Temporal Trends and Variabilities of Hailstones in the United States Northern Great Plains and Their Possible Attributions

Following on our study of hail for the southern Great Plains (SGP), we investigated the spatial and temporal hail trends and variabilities for the northern Great Plains (NGP) and the contributing factors for summers (June-August) focusing on the period of 2004-16 using two independent hail datasets. Analysis for an extended period (1994-2016) with the hail reports was also conducted to more reliably investigate the contributing factors. Both severe hail (diameter between 1 and 2 inches) and significant severe hail (SSH; diameter > 2 inches) were examined and similar results were obtained. The occurrence of hail over the NGP demonstrated a large interannual variability, with a positive slope overall. Spatially, the increase is mainly located in the western part of Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. We find the three major dynamical factors that most likely contribute to the hail interannual variability in the NGP are El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and the low-level jet (LLJ). With a thermodynamical variable integrated water vapor transport that is strongly controlled by LLJ, the four factors can explain 78% of the interannual variability in the number of SSH reports. Hail occurrences in the La Nina years are higher than the El Nino years since the jet stream is stronger and NASH extends farther into the southeastern United States, thereby strengthening the LLJ and in turn water vapor transport. Interestingly, the important factors impacting hail interannual variability over the NGP are quite different from those for the SGP, except for ENSO.

Automated summary

The study focuses on the spatial and temporal trends of hail in the northern Great Plains, with a positive overall slope in hail occurrences and major contributing factors identified as El Nino-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic subtropical high, and the low-level jet. La Nina years have higher hail occurrences due to a stronger jet stream and extension of NASH, impacting water vapor transport. The factors impacting hail interannual variability in the NGP are different from those in the SGP, except for ENSO.