Forecasting lake evaporation under a changing climate with an integrated artificial neural network model: A case study Lake Nasser, Egypt

Understanding lake evaporation and the climate change role in evaporation is paramount for any water resources management system. The prediction of the climate's future changes is a very important step in planning lake future management decisions. This study analyzed Lake Nasser's evaporation in southern Egypt. Meteorological parameters were compiled from Aswan meteorological station near Lake Nasser. Also, CORDEX predicted climatological parameters from 2021 to 2050 were collected. Lake Nasser's evaporation prediction model using artificial neural networks technique was built. Statistics were calculated in the calibration and validation stages to find the most adequate model of the Lake evaporation calculation. The predictions of future evaporation were extracted from the model using predicted climatological data from CORDEX regional climate models. Trend analysis was done to assure the impacts of climate change on the lake. ANN model was developed and implemented successfully on Lake Nasser, which could be used to handle evaporation calculation over Lake Nasser. ANN model with training algorithm with 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22 neurons with 5 input variables were tested to find the best model evaporation estimation of the lake with the least number of neurons. ANN model with training algorithm with 20 neurons with 5 input variables performed the best for evaporation estimation of the lake. According to predicted climate data, about a 2% increase in lake Nasser evaporation could be predicted in the year 2050. It was noticed that the maximum predicted values of evaporation are in July to August months with a range from 7.04 mm/day to 9.64 mm/day. The peak value, the outlier of maximum evaporation, is about 11.16 mm/day. The minimum predicted values are in December to January months with a range from 3.50 mm/day to 6.81 mm/day. Trend analysis showed that the predicted climatological parameters are slightly higher than historical records.

Automated summary

Understanding lake evaporation and the role of climate change in evaporation is crucial for water resources management. A study on Lake Nasser in southern Egypt developed a prediction model using artificial neural networks, indicating a potential 2% increase in evaporation by 2050. Trend analysis suggests that predicted climatological parameters may be slightly higher than historical records.