Journal
INFECTION
Volume 50, Issue 4, Pages 803-813Publisher
SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
DOI: 10.1007/s15010-021-01682-x
Keywords
COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Incubation period; Meta-analysis; Risk assessment; Quarantine period
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [82041024, 82041026, 81973142, 81903407]
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This study estimated the median and dispersion of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation period more precisely. The incubation period for asymptomatic transmissions was significantly longer. Additionally, for every 10-year increase in age, there was an average 16% increment in the length of the median incubation period.
Purpose To estimate the central tendency and dispersion for incubation period of COVID-19 and, in turn, assess the effect of a certain length of quarantine for close contacts in active monitoring. Methods Literature related to SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 was searched through April 26, 2020. Quality was assessed according to Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality guidelines. Log-normal distribution for the incubation period was assumed to estimate the parameters for each study. Incubation period median and dispersion were estimated, and distribution was simulated. Results Fifty-six studies encompassing 4095 cases were included in this meta-analysis. The estimated median incubation period for general transmissions was 5.8 days [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 5.3, 6.2]. Incubation period was significantly longer for asymptomatic transmissions (median: 7.7 days; 95% CI 6.3, 9.4) than for general transmissions (P = 0.0408). Median and dispersion were higher for SARS-CoV-2 incubation compared to other viral respiratory infections. Furthermore, about 12 in 10,000 contacts in active monitoring would develop symptoms after 14 days, or below 1 in 10,000 for asymptomatic transmissions. Meta-regression suggested that each 10-year increase in age resulted in an average 16% increment in length of median incubation (incubation period ratio, 1.16, 95% CI 1.01, 1.32; P = 0.0250). Conclusion This study estimated the median and dispersion of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation period more precisely. A 14-day quarantine period is sufficient to trace and identify symptomatic infections.
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