Urban flood risk under global changes: a socio-hydrological and cellular automata approach in a Brazilian catchment

Society is facing increasingly rapid and frequent changes, which are transforming the decision making paradigm from a static, value-based perspective to a dynamic, scenario-based perspective. Flood risk assessment (FRA) is moving towards an approach that encompasses social, climatic, and environmental changes. Advances in climate and hydraulic modelling allow the development of long-term scenarios with greater reliability. However, the coupling of human behaviour in the process of flood risk assessment is still in an embryonic phase. Here we attempt to fill this gap by (1) coupling a socio-hydrological model with an urban flood model using a cellular automata approach, and (2) using climate change projections to estimate flood risk in the coming decades. We illustrate our analytical framework with an application in a Brazilian catchment, showing its potential in developing long-term scenarios that can ultimately improve the process of flood risk assessment.

Automated summary

Society is experiencing rapid changes, shifting decision making from static to dynamic perspectives. Flood risk assessment is adapting to include social, climatic, and environmental changes, while the role of human behavior in the process is still in its early stages, with research focusing on integrating this factor.