Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 48, Issue 11, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL093440
Keywords
stratospheric polar vortex; climate change; North American stratospheric warming; Tropical Pacific warming
Categories
Funding
- Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) program in Japan
- Japan Arctic Research Network Center (J-ARC Net)
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan [2-1904]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The future stratosphere is globally dominated by strong radiative cooling due to an increase in greenhouse gases. However, differences in stratospheric cooling over North America and Eurasia, driven by factors such as tropical warming and eastern equatorial Pacific warming, may lead to an asymmetric polar vortex. The asymmetric polar vortex is projected to significantly develop in the 2030s, potentially impacting the winter surface climate over mid- to high-latitudes of Eurasia in the near future.
The future stratosphere is globally dominated by a strong radiative cooling due to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, we find that over North America, the Arctic stratospheric cooling is suppressed or rather warming occurs, whereas over Eurasia stratospheric cooling is most pronounced, leading to an asymmetric polar vortex, based on 21st century climate model simulations. There are many causes that drive polar vortex variability, which make future projections highly uncertain. Our model simulations demonstrate that tropical warming induces the asymmetric polar vortex. The eastern equatorial Pacific warming causes eastward-shifted teleconnection with a deepened Aleutian low, which strengthens the polar vortex over Eurasia and weakens over North America by enhancing the vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. The asymmetric polar vortex is projected to markedly develop in the 2030s, and so could affect winter surface climate over mid- to high-latitudes of Eurasia in the near future.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available