Updated Global Black Carbon Emissions from 1960 to 2017: Improvements, Trends, and Drivers

Accurate estimation of black carbon (BC) emissions is essential for assessing the health and climate impact of this pollutant. Past emission inventories were associated with high uncertainty due to data limitations, and recent information has provided a unique updating opportunity. Moreover, understanding the drivers that cause temporal emission changes is of research value. Here, we update the global BC emission estimates using new data on the activities and emission factors (EFs). The new inventory covers 73 detailed sources at 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution from 1960 to 2017. The estimated annual emissions were 32% higher than the average of several previous inventories, which was primarily due to field-measured EFs for residential stoves and differentiated EFs for motor vehicles. In addition, the updated emissions show an inverse U-shaped temporal trend, which was mainly driven by the interaction between the positive effects of population growth, per capita energy consumption, and vehicle fleet and the negative effects of residential energy switching, stove upgrading, phasing out of beehive coke ovens, and reduced EFs for vehicles and industrial processes. Urbanization caused a significant increase in urban emissions accompanied by a more significant decline in rural emissions.

Automated summary

Researchers updated the estimation of black carbon emissions using new data, revealing a 32% increase compared to previous estimates, primarily due to field-measured emission factors for residential stoves and differentiated factors for vehicles. Additionally, the updated emissions show an inverse U-shaped trend, driven by factors such as population growth, per capita energy consumption, and vehicle fleet increase.