Geospatial assessment of the economic opportunity for reforestation in Maryland, USA

Afforestation and reforestation have the potential to provide effective climate mitigation through forest carbon sequestration. Strategic reforestation activities, which account for both carbon sequestration potential (CSP) and economic opportunity, can provide attractive options for policymakers who must manage competing social and environmental goals. In particular, forest carbon pricing can incentivize reforestation on private land, but this may require landholders to forego other profits. Here, we utilize an ambitious geospatial approach to quantify economic opportunities for reforestation in the state of Maryland (USA) based on high-resolution remoting sensing, ecosystem modeling, and economic analysis. Our results identify spatially-explicit areas of economic opportunity where the potential revenue from forest carbon outcompetes the expected profit of existing cropland at the hectare scale. Specifically, we find that under a baseline economic scenario of $20 per ton of carbon (5% rental rate) and decadal average crop profitability, a transition to forest on agricultural land would be more profitable than 23.2% of cropland in Maryland under a 20 year land-use commitment. Accounting for variations in carbon and crop pricing, 5.5%-55.4% of cropland would be immediately outcompeted by expected forest carbon revenue, with the potential for an additional 0.5%-10.6% of outcompeted cropland within 20 years. Under the baseline economic scenario, an annual allocation of $5.8 million towards a carbon rental program could protect 6.93 Tg C (3.4% of the state's total remaining CSP) on reforested croplands. This moderate yearly cost is equal to 9.7% of Maryland's average annual auction proceeds from participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (between 2014 and 2018), and 19.3% of the average annual subsidy payments for corn, soy, and wheat allocated over the same period. This methodological approach may be useful for state governments, not-for-profit organizations, or regional climate initiatives interested in identifying strategic areas for reforestation.

Automated summary

It has been found that under a baseline economic scenario with a carbon price of $20 per ton, transitioning agricultural land to forests in Maryland would be more profitable than 23.2% of cropland. Additionally, considering variations in carbon and crop pricing, 5.5%-55.4% of cropland could immediately outcompete the expected forest carbon revenue, with the potential for an additional 0.5%-10.6% within 20 years. By allocating $5.8 million annually towards a carbon rental program, 6.93 Tg C (3.4% of the state's total remaining CSP) could be protected on reforested croplands in Maryland. This methodological approach could be useful for state governments, not-for-profit organizations, or regional climate initiatives interested in identifying strategic areas for reforestation.