Assessing Global Long-Term EROI of Gas: A Net-Energy Perspective on the Energy Transition

Natural gas is expected to play an important role in the coming low-carbon energy transition. However, conventional gas resources are gradually being replaced by unconventional ones and a question remains: to what extent is net-energy production impacted by the use of lower-quality energy sources? This aspect of the energy transition was only partially explored in previous discussions. To fill this gap, this paper incorporates standard energy-return-on-investment (EROI) estimates and dynamic functions into the GlobalShift bottom-up model at a global level. We find that the energy necessary to produce gas (including direct and indirect energy and material costs) corresponds to 6.7% of the gross energy produced at present, and is growing at an exponential rate: by 2050, it will reach 23.7%. Our results highlight the necessity of viewing the energy transition through the net-energy prism and call for a greater number of EROI studies.

Automated summary

This paper discusses the importance of natural gas in the future low-carbon energy transition and the potential impact on net-energy production from using unconventional resources. The study reveals that the energy required to produce gas is increasing exponentially, highlighting the need for more EROI studies to assess the feasibility of this energy transition.