4.5 Article

Short-Term Deterministic Solar Irradiance Forecasting Considering a Heuristics-Based, Operational Approach

Journal

ENERGIES
Volume 14, Issue 18, Pages -

Publisher

MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/en14186005

Keywords

solar power forecasting; renewable energy; solar energy; Markov chains; fuzzy logic; heuristics

Categories

Funding

  1. CORFO project [13CEI2-21803]
  2. Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile

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A novel deterministic forecast method was proposed, considering irradiance pattern classification, Markov chains, fuzzy logic and an operational approach, to provide effective and operationally feasible forecasting techniques for better grid integration. Results showed that lead time has the greatest impact on forecasting performance, and the new method outperformed traditional methods in different weather conditions.
Solar energy is an economic and clean power source subject to natural variability, while energy storage might attenuate it, ultimately, effective and operationally feasible forecasting techniques for energy management are needed for better grid integration. This work presents a novel deterministic forecast method considering: irradiance pattern classification, Markov chains, fuzzy logic and an operational approach. The method developed was applied in a rolling manner for six years to a target location with no prior data to assess performance and its changes as new local data becomes available. Clearness index, diffuse fraction and irradiance hourly forecasts are analyzed on a yearly basis but also for 20 day types, and compared against smart persistence. Results show the proposed method outperforms smart persistence by similar to 10% for clearness index and diffuse fraction on the base case, but there are significant differences across the 20 day types analyzed, reaching up to +60% for clear days. Forecast lead time has the greatest impact in forecasting performance, which is important for any practical implementation. Seasonality in data gaps or rejected data can have a definite effect in performance assessment. A novel, comprehensive and detailed analysis framework was shown to present a better assessment of forecasters' performance.

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