Risk profiles for negative and positive COVID-19 hospitalized patients

COVID-19 is a viral infection that affects people differently, where the majority of cases develop mild symptoms, some people require hospitalization, and unfortunately, a small number of patients perish. Hence, identifying risk factors is critical for physicians to make treatment decisions. The purpose of this article is to determine whether unsupervised analysis of risk factors in positive and negative COVID-19 subjects can aid in the identification of a set of reliable and clinically relevant risk profiles. Positive and negative patients hospitalized were randomly selected from the Mexican Open Registry between March and May 2020. Thirteen risk factors, three distinct outcomes, and COVID-19 test results were used to categorize registry patients. As a result, the dataset was reported via 6144 different risk profiles for each age group. The unsupervised learning method is proposed in this study to discover the most prevalent risk profiles. The data was partitioned into discovery (70%) and validation (30%) sets. The discovery set was analyzed using the partition around medoids (PAM) method, and the stable set of risk profiles was estimated using robust consensus clustering. The PAM models' reliability was validated by predicting the risk profile of subjects from the validation set and patients admitted in November 2020. In the validation set, the clinical relevance of the risk profiles was evaluated by determining the prevalence of three patient outcomes: pneumonia diagnosis, ICU admission, or death. Six positive and five negative COVID19 risk profiles were identified, with significant statistical differences between them. As a result, PAM clustering with consensus mapping is a viable method for discovering unsupervised risk profiles in subjects with severe respiratory health problems.

Automated summary

This study aims to determine reliable and clinically relevant risk profiles by analyzing risk factors in COVID-19 patients in an unsupervised manner. Through research on patients from the Mexican Open Registry, multiple distinct positive and negative COVID-19 risk profiles were identified, with significant statistical differences between them.