What Drives the Decadal Variability of Global Tropical Storm Days from 1965 to 2019?

The tropical storm day (TSD) is a combined measure of genesis and lifespan. It reflects tropical cyclone (TC) overall activity, yet its variability has rarely been studied, especially globally. Here we show that the global total TSDs exhibit pronounced interannual (3-6 years) and decadal (10 years) variations over the past five-to-six decades without a significant trend. The leading modes of the interannual and decadal variability of global TSD feature similar patterns in the western Pacific and Atlantic, but different patterns in the Eastern Pacific and the Southern Indian Ocean. The interannual and decadal leading modes are primarily linked to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively. The TSDs-ENSO relationship has been steady during the entire 55-year period, but the TSDs-PDO relationship has experienced a breakdown in the 1980s. We find that the decadal variation of TSD in the Pacific is associated with the PDO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific (PDO-E), while that in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean is associated with the PDO SST anomalies in the western Pacific (PDO-W). However, the PDO-E and PDO-W SST anomalies are poorly coupled in the 1980s, and this destructive PDO pattern results in a breakdown of the TSDs-PDO relationship. The results here have an important implication for seasonal to decadal predictions of global TSD.

Automated summary

The global total Tropical Storm Days (TSDs) show significant interannual and decadal variations over the past several decades, linked primarily to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The decadal variation of TSD in the Pacific is associated with PDO sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific, while in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean, it is associated with PDO SST anomalies in the western Pacific. The relationship between TSDs and PDO experienced a breakdown in the 1980s due to poorly coupled PDO sea surface temperature anomalies.