Journal
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
Volume 9, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.592027
Keywords
phytoplankton; climate; Antarctica; biogeochemistry; deep chlorophyll maximum; ocean colour; MODIS; SeaWiFS
Categories
Funding
- New Zealand MBIE Endeavour Fund programme Ross-RAMP [C01X1710]
- NZ MBIE Strategic Science Investment Fund
- ANID (FONDAP-IDEAL) [15150003]
- FONDECYT [3180152]
- Australian Department of Industry funded ACE-CRC programme
- Australian Department of Industry funded AAPP programme
- New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE) [C01X1710] Funding Source: New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE)
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This paper analyzes trends and future projections of phytoplankton biomass, primary production, and irradiance in the Southern Ocean within the MEASO framework. Satellite observations show an increase in phytoplankton biomass but likely decrease in primary production. Earth system models project increasing NPP in the Northern and Antarctic zones but decreases in the Subantarctic zone over the next 100 years.
Within the framework of the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO), this paper brings together analyses of recent trends in phytoplankton biomass, primary production and irradiance at the base of the mixed layer in the Southern Ocean and summarises future projections. Satellite observations suggest that phytoplankton biomass in the mixed-layer has increased over the last 20 years in most (but not all) parts of the Southern Ocean, whereas primary production at the base of the mixed-layer has likely decreased over the same period. Different satellite models of primary production (Vertically Generalised versus Carbon Based Production Models) give different patterns and directions of recent change in net primary production (NPP). At present, the satellite record is not long enough to distinguish between trends and climate-related cycles in primary production. Over the next 100 years, Earth system models project increasing NPP in the water column in the MEASO northern and Antarctic zones but decreases in the Subantarctic zone. Low confidence in these projections arises from: (1) the difficulty in mapping supply mechanisms for key nutrients (silicate, iron); and (2) understanding the effects of multiple stressors (including irradiance, nutrients, temperature, pCO(2), pH, grazing) on different species of Antarctic phytoplankton. Notwithstanding these uncertainties, there are likely to be changes to the seasonal patterns of production and the microbial community present over the next 50-100 years and these changes will have ecological consequences across Southern Ocean food-webs, especially on key species such as Antarctic krill and silverfish.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available