Caputo fractional-order SEIRP model for COVID-19 Pandemic

We propose a Caputo-based fractional compartmental model for the dynamics of the novel COVID-19 pandemic. The newly proposed nonlinear fractional order model is an extension of a recently formulated integer-order COVID-19 mathematical model. Using basic concepts such as continuity and Banach fixed-point theorem, existence and uniqueness of the solution to the proposed model were shown. Furthermore, we analyze the stability of the model in the context of Ulam-Hyers and generalized Ulam-Hyers stability criteria. The concept of next-generation matrix was used to compute the basic reproduction number R0, a number that determines the spread or otherwise of the disease into the general population. We also investigated the local asymptotic stability for the derived disease-free equilibrium point. Numerical simulation of the constructed epidemic model was carried out using the fractional Adam-Bashforth-Moulton method to validate the obtained theoretical results. (c) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University.

Automated summary

In this study, a Caputo-based fractional compartmental model for the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic was proposed and the existence and uniqueness of the solution were demonstrated. The basic reproduction number R0 was computed to determine disease spread, and stability of disease-free equilibrium point was analyzed using Ulam-Hyers and generalized Ulam-Hyers stability criteria.