Shortfalls and opportunities in terrestrial vertebrate species discovery

Much of biodiversity remains undiscovered, causing species and their functions to remain unrealized and potentially lost in ignorance. Here we use extensive species-level data in a time-to-event model framework to identify taxonomic and geographic discovery gaps in terrestrial vertebrates. Biological, environmental and sociological factors all affect discovery probability and together provide strong predictive ability for species discovery. Our model identifies distinct taxonomic and geographic unevenness in future discovery potential, with greatest opportunities for amphibians and reptiles, and for Neotropical and Indo-Malayan forests. Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar and Colombia emerge as holding greatest discovery opportunities, with a quarter of potential discoveries estimated. These findings highlight the importance of international policy support for basic taxonomic research and the potential of quantitative models to aid species discovery. The number of species unknown to science is profound and limits effective conservation of diversity. Here the authors estimate which clades and locations are most ripe for taxonomic discovery.

Automated summary

The study identifies taxonomic and geographic discovery gaps in terrestrial vertebrates using extensive species-level data in a time-to-event model framework. Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar and Colombia are highlighted as countries with the greatest potential for species discovery, showcasing the importance of international policy support for basic taxonomic research. The study emphasizes the need for quantitative models to aid in species discovery and highlights the profound number of undiscovered species, limiting effective conservation efforts.