Over a Century of Sinking in Mexico City: No Hope for Significant Elevation and Storage Capacity Recovery

Many areas worldwide are known to experience land subsidence due to groundwater extraction. It is traditionally assumed that subsidence extent and rates are controlled by groundwater extraction locations and volumes. Here, we reevaluate this assumption in the Mexico City metropolitan area by combining stratigraphic, hydrologic, geodetic, and demographic datasets. Integration of 115 years of leveling with 24 years of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and 14 years of GPS data reveals that subsidence rates have been mostly constant in Mexico City since at least 1950 and reach 50 cm/year. Analysis of InSAR and GPS data shows that no significant elastic deformation exists, demonstrating that the subsidence is almost fully irreversible. In Mexico City, no direct relationships exist between groundwater level fluctuations and subsidence rates or between pumping rates and subsidence rates. In contrast, a strong positive linear relationship is isolated between subsidence rates and the thickness of the upper aquitard. Through the integration of these long-term datasets, we forecast that it will take similar to 150 years to reach total compaction of the upper aquitard, which may lead to additional subsidence up to 30 m. With the potentiometric surface now deeper than most of the aquitard, clay's porewater rich in salts, chemical constituents, and pollutants is now flowing downward into the productive aquifer, hence decreasing water quality. Finally, our work shows that the consequences of land subsidence greatly influence the socioeconomic landscape in the Mexico City metropolitan area.

Automated summary

Subsidence rates in Mexico City have been relatively constant since 1950, reaching up to 50 cm/year. There is no direct relationship between groundwater level fluctuations and pumping rates with subsidence rates, but a strong positive linear relationship exists between subsidence rates and the thickness of the upper aquitard. It is forecasted that total compaction of the upper aquitard may take around 150 years, leading to potential additional subsidence up to 30 m.