Elevation-Dependent Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau From an Ensemble of CORDEX-EA Regional Climate Simulations

Under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-East Asia (CORDEX-EA-II), the outputs from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by four global climate models (GCMs) are used to investigate the characteristics and possible mechanisms of the projected elevation-dependent warming (EDW) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) under the Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). Results show that widespread warming over the TP is projected with considerable disagreements in warming intensity and the maximum warming center among RCMs. The largest spread in the surface air temperature (T-as) projections is found above 5,000 m, indicating that a large uncertainty exists over the higher elevations. A marked EDW signal over the TP is simulated under the RCP 8.5 by the multi-RCM ensemble mean for all seasons, particularly in autumn. Based on the analysis of the surface energy budget, it is found that the surface albedo feedback (SAF) is the primary contributor to EDW and acts as the main source of uncertainty in EDW projections among RCMs. The downward longwave radiation (DLW) is found to be the dominant factor in regulating T-as change over the TP, and its contribution to EDW is model-dependent. Furthermore, the structure and magnitude of projected EDW are sensitive to the RCM physics and driving GCM, as they can alter the projections of snow cover and albedo, which modulate the simulated SAF and its effect on EDW. Additionally, RegCM4 shows a higher sensitivity to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing than WRF, evidenced by the larger temperature projections and stronger EDW signal in RegCM4.

Automated summary

Under the CORDEX-EA-II framework, outputs from two RCMs driven by four GCMs were used to investigate elevation-dependent warming (EDW) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) under RCP8.5. Results showed significant disagreements in warming intensity and center among RCMs, with the largest spread found above 5,000 m. EDW signal was primarily influenced by surface albedo feedback (SAF) and the contribution of downward longwave radiation (DLW) varied among models. Additionally, RegCM4 showed higher sensitivity to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing compared to WRF, resulting in larger temperature projections and stronger EDW signal.