Journal
RESULTS IN PHYSICS
Volume 24, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104098
Keywords
Corona virus; Basic reproduction number; Social distancing; Effective transmission rate
Ask authors/readers for more resources
A new mathematical model is proposed to investigate the COVID-19 outbreak, with parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis conducted using real data from Pakistan. Numerical simulations and contour plots are used to explore the features of the proposed model.
We propose a new mathematical model to investigate the recent outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The model is studied qualitatively using stability theory of differential equations and the basic reproductive number that represents an epidemic indicator is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. The global asymptotic stability conditions for the disease free equilibrium are obtained. The real COVID-19 incidence data entries from 01 July, 2020 to 14 August, 2020 in the country of Pakistan are used for parameter estimation thereby getting fitted values for the biological parameters. Sensitivity analysis is performed in order to determine the most sensitive parameters in the proposed model. To view more features of the state variables in the proposed model, we perform numerical simulations by using different values of some essential parameters. Moreover, profiles of the reproduction number through contour plots have been biologically explained.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available