Predicted Aflatoxin B1 Increase in Europe Due to Climate Change: Actions and Reactions at Global Level

Climate change (CC) is predicted to increase the risk of aflatoxin (AF) contamination in maize, as highlighted by a project supported by EFSA in 2009. We performed a comprehensive literature search using the Scopus search engine to extract peer-reviewed studies citing this study. A total of 224 papers were identified after step I filtering (187 + 37), while step II filtering identified 25 of these papers for quantitative analysis. The unselected papers (199) were categorized as actions because they provided a sounding board for the expected impact of CC on AFB(1) contamination, without adding new data on the topic. The remaining papers were considered as reactions of the scientific community because they went a step further in their data and ideas. Interesting statements taken from the reactions could be summarized with the following keywords: Chain and multi-actor approach, intersectoral and multidisciplinary, resilience, human and animal health, and global vision. In addition, fields meriting increased research efforts were summarized as the improvement of predictive modeling; extension to different crops and geographic areas; and the impact of CC on fungi and mycotoxin co-occurrence, both in crops and their value chains, up to consumers.

Automated summary

The study found that climate change may increase the risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize, with the scientific community reacting and taking action. These studies suggest the need for improved predictive modeling, extension to different crops and geographic areas, and research on the impact of climate change on the co-occurrence of fungi and mycotoxins.