Inventory and GLOF Susceptibility of Glacial Lakes in Hunza River Basin, Western Karakorum

Northern latitudes of Pakistan are warming at faster rate as compared to the rest of the country. It has induced irregular and sudden glacier fluctuations leading to the progression of glacial lakes, and thus enhancing the risk of Glacier Lake Outbursts Floods (GLOF) in the mountain systems of Pakistan. Lack of up-to-date inventory, classification, and susceptibility profiles of glacier lakes and newly formed GLOFs, are few factors which pose huge hindrance towards disaster preparedness and risk reduction strategies in Pakistan. This study aims to bridge the existing gap in data and knowledge by exploiting satellite observations, and efforts are made to compile and update glacier lake inventories. GLOF susceptibility assessment is evaluated by using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multicriteria structured technique based on three susceptibility contributing factors: Geographic, topographic, and climatic. A total of 294 glacial lakes are delineated with a total area of 7.85 +/- 0.31 km(2) for the year 2018. Analysis has identified six glacier lakes as potential GLOF and met the pre-established criteria of damaging GLOFs. The historical background of earlier GLOF events is utilized to validate the anticipated approach and found this method appropriate for first order detection and prioritization of potential GLOFs in Northern Pakistan.

Automated summary

Northern latitudes of Pakistan are experiencing faster warming, leading to irregular glacier fluctuations and the formation of glacial lakes, increasing the risk of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in the mountain systems. The lack of up-to-date inventory, classification, and susceptibility profiles of glacier lakes and newly formed GLOFs poses a significant hindrance to disaster preparedness and risk reduction strategies in Pakistan. This study aims to bridge the gap in data and knowledge by utilizing satellite observations and evaluating GLOF susceptibility through a structured technique, identifying potential GLOFs in Northern Pakistan based on historical events.