4.4 Article

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Highway Traffic Patterns in Hurricane Irma Evacuation

Journal

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD
Volume 2675, Issue 9, Pages 321-334

Publisher

SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
DOI: 10.1177/03611981211001870

Keywords

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Funding

  1. U.S. National Science Foundation [1832068]
  2. Directorate For Engineering
  3. Div Of Civil, Mechanical, & Manufact Inn [1832068] Funding Source: National Science Foundation

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In 2017, Hurricane Irma, a Category 4 hurricane, struck Florida, resulting in the largest evacuation in the state's history. This study assessed the spatiotemporal traffic impacts of Irma on Florida's major highways using real-time traffic data, finding that imperfect forecasts and path uncertainty led to high levels of congestion and severe delays on the state's main evacuation routes.
The State of Florida is significantly vulnerable to catastrophic hurricanes that cause widespread infrastructural damage and claim lives annually. In 2017, Hurricane Irma, a Category 4 hurricane, took on the entirety of Florida, causing the state's largest evacuation ever as 7 million residents fled the hurricane. Floridians fleeing the hurricane faced the unique challenge of where to go, since Irma made an unusual landfall from the south, enveloping the entire state, forcing evacuees to drive farther north, and creating traffic jams along Florida's evacuation routes that were worse than during any other hurricane in Florida's history. This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal traffic impacts of Irma on Florida's major highways based on real-time traffic data before, during, and after the hurricane made landfall. First, we conducted a time-series-based analysis to evaluate the temporal evacuation patterns of this large-scale evacuation. Second, we developed a metric, namely the congestion index (CI), to assess the spatiotemporal evacuation patterns on I-95, I-75, I-10, I-4, and turnpike (SR-91) highways with a focus on both evacuation and returning traffic. Third, we employed a geographic information system-based analysis to visually illustrate the CI values of corresponding highway sections with respect to different dates and times. Findings clearly showed that imperfect forecasts and the uncertainty surrounding Irma's predicted path resulted in high levels of congestion and severe delays on Florida's major evacuation routes.

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