An estimation of heavy-duty vehicle fleet CO2 emissions based on sampled data

Certification and monitoring of heavy vehicle CO2 emissions in several countries are based on individual vehicle simulation. Smaller fleet subsets can be used for accurate fleet-level results while preserving the characteristics of the underlying fleet-emissions distributions. The paper focuses on three approaches to capture fleet CO2 emissions: a) sampling directly from the fleet-data, b) sampling from data of individual vehicle components and c) using key statistics regarding the fleet composition that are available. The first and second approach deliver marginal divergences of the mean, between 1.1 and 2.1% and below 2.7 respectively, preserving the characteristics of the distribution. The third deviated by up to 5%, but lacked the detailed characteristics of the underlying statistical distribution. All three are useful when setting up fleet-wide monitoring schemes where detailed data are not available and to investigate the potential CO2 savings of various future fleet compositions, and scenarios regarding the diffusion of different types of technologies.

Automated summary

This paper discusses three methods for capturing fleet CO2 emissions data and their effectiveness, pointing out their applications in fleet monitoring and future fleet composition research.