Journal
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
Volume 144, Issue 3-4, Pages 1043-1057Publisher
SPRINGER WIEN
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03567-3
Keywords
Hydrological drought; Meteorological drought; Drought evolution; Huai River basin
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51909106, 51879108]
- Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China [2020A1515011038, 2018A030310653]
- highlevel talent project for the Pearl River Talent Plan of Guangdong Province [2017GC010397]
- Youth Innovative Talents Project for Guangdong Colleges and Universities [2017KQNCX010]
- International Young Researcher Development Project of Guangdong Province, China
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This study systematically analyzed the relationships between severity and duration of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the upper Huai River Basin in China, using the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Runoff Index. The results showed a drying trend in the upstream area and a weaker correlation between SPI and SRI in downstream areas due to increasing human activities. The drier climatic conditions were found to be the main reason for the increasing threshold for triggering hydrological droughts from upstream to downstream.
Objective evaluation of the relationships among different types of droughts remains a challenging task due to the combined impacts of climate change and land surface modification caused by human activities. Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) at the 3- and 6-month timescales, this study presents a systematic analysis of the relationships between the severity (S) and duration (D) of meteorological (MD) and hydrological droughts (HD) in the three catchments of the upper Huai River Basin in China. The relation between SPI and SRI is explored by the maximal information coefficient and the mutual entropy. The spatial propagation mechanism of MD is identified by the centroid trajectory, and the response of HD to MD is quantified by the model averaging method. The results indicate a drying (wetting) trend in the upstream (downstream) area, while the centroid trajectory of MD is found in the midstream area, but not associated with the large (or small) S and D simultaneously. There is a strong correlation (determination coefficient > 0.55) between SPI and SRI in all three subareas, particularly at the 6-month timescale. The increasing influences of human activities (e.g., regulation of water conservancy facilities) from upstream to downstream lead to a weaker correlation between SPI and SRI as well as a decreasing threshold of D for MD to trigger HD in downstream. By contrast, the drier climatic conditions are the main reason for the increasing threshold of S for MD to trigger HD from upstream to downstream.
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