Extreme weather events and military conflict over seven centuries in ancient Korea

We explore the causal connection between weather and war by constructing and analyzing a dataset featuring extreme weather events and military conflicts involving a set of stable political entities that existed side by side over several centuries, namely, the three ancient kingdoms of the Korean Peninsula between 18 Before the Common Era and 660 Common Era. Conflicts are classified as desperate if a state experiencing the shock invades a neighbor and opportunistic if a state experiencing the shock is invaded by a neighbor. We find that weather-induced conflict was significant, but largely opportunistic rather than desperate. That is, states experiencing an adverse shock were more likely to be invaded, but not more likely to initiate attack. We also provide evidence that the channel through which weather shocks gave rise to opportunistic invasions was food insecurity, which weakened the power of states to repel attack. Since climate change is projected to give rise to an increased frequency of extreme weather events, these historical findings have contemporary relevance.

Automated summary

The study found that weather-induced conflicts during the three ancient kingdoms period on the Korean Peninsula were significant, but more opportunistic than desperate, with states more likely to be invaded than initiate attacks. Food insecurity was identified as a main factor leading to opportunistic invasions, weakening states' power to repel attacks. Given the projected increase in extreme weather events due to climate change, these historical findings have contemporary relevance.