How effective are the protected areas to preserve endangered plant species in a climate change scenario? The case of three Iberian endemics

Climate change has emerged as the main threat to global biodiversity and even the protected areas (PAs) are not immune to this problem. Here, we have focused on PAs with the aim of assessing the impacts of climate change on their habitat suitability and their effectiveness to protect threatened species, in this case three endemic Spanish plants: Isatis platyloba, Rhaponticum exaltatum and Succisella microcephala. We used the machine-learning technique called Maxent that is able to protect the potential species distribution under four future climate scenarios. Our results show a strong reduction of the potential areas with high suitability for Isatis platyloba. By contrast, for Rhaponticum exaltatum and Succisella microcephala our results suggested an increase of potential habitats. Regarding to the PAs specially designed to protect some important populations of these species, most of them would be located in areas with high suitability for all species in the future. Our study supports the necessity of the proposed Plant Micro-reserves to guarantee the preservation of these three species and, most importantly, can serve as a model to evaluate the efficiency of a given PA in protecting any species taking into account the climate change scenario. Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/11263504.2021.1918777.

Automated summary

Climate change poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, impacting both protected areas and endangered species. Assessing the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and the effectiveness of protection measures is essential for conservation efforts. A model like Maxent can help predict potential species distribution under different climate scenarios, guiding the development of conservation strategies.