Characterization of earthquake hazard at the Palghar and Pulichintala swarm activity regions (India) through three-dimensional modelling of b-value and fractal (correlation) dimensions

The present work focuses on the three-dimensional mapping of fractal correlation dimensions and b-values of the Palghar (Maharashtra) and Pulichintala (Andhra Pradesh) regions of the Indian shield. The study is done using catalogues of 8766 Palghar earthquakes of M(L)0.4-4.7 and 965 Puclichintala earthquakes of M-L ranging from -0.4 to 4.6. The b-values are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach, while fractal dimensions are modelled using the correlation dimension approach. The b-value is modelled to be 0.88 +/- 0.02 for the Palghar sequence and 0.75 +/- 0.04 for the Pulichintala sequence. The modelled b- and D-2-values vary from 0.1 to 2.5 and 0.39 to 2.62, respectively, for the Palghar sequence, while they vary from 0.2 to 1.68, and 0.68 to 3.0, respectively, for the Pulichintala sequence. The modelled large b-value (similar to 2.5) for the Palghar sequence in particular signifies the typical characteristic of swarm earthquakes. We examine the b-D-2 correlations for both the swarm activity sequences and found a positive correlation (i.e. D-2 = 1.085 + 0.0015b) for the Palghar sequence while a negative correlation (i.e. D-2 = 0.99-0.0414b) for the Pulichintala sequence. The spatial distribution of D-2 and b-values suggests that the seismicity in the Palghar region is occurring in the areas with lower to moderate b-values and moderate correlation dimensions, while the seismicity in the Pulichintala region is occurring in areas with moderate b-values and higher D-2 values. Based on our results, we interpret the Palghar region as a high tectonic stress region, which can generate moderate earthquakes in future, while the Pulichintala region is a low stress region that can accumulate low levels of tectonic stress posing relatively less earthquake hazard.

Automated summary

This study focuses on mapping the fractal correlation dimensions and b-values of the Palghar and Pulichintala regions of the Indian shield. Results show that the Palghar region may experience moderate earthquakes in the future, while the Pulichintala region poses relatively lower earthquake hazard.