Monitoring land sensitivity to desertification using the ESAI approach and evaluation of the key indicators: A spatio-temporal study in India

Desertification is one of the primary environmental problems that negatively affect agricultural production leading to poverty, hunger, and economic instability in a country like India. A holistic study is therefore extremely valuable rather than localized ones for addressing this issue and its' further consequences. In this study, the environmentally sensitive area index (ESAI) has been used to identify the areas vulnerable to desertification from 1992 to 2015 in India. In addition to this, the random forest (RF) model was used to identify the drivers with major influence over the phenomenon. The result revealed that the desertification process has extended from the west and spread over the southern region in the Country. Among the states of India, Rajasthan and Ladakh possess the highest mean ESAI values (1.5-1.7), where 87.61% and 83.83% of land, respectively, are critically degraded due to desertification. According to the Mann-Kendall mutation point detection test, the years of 1996, 2009, and 2014 were identified as the abrupt change of desertification processes over the Country. The most severe form of degradation is observed in the period between 1997 and 2009, where the highly sensitive (Critical-3) area increased up to 37.44%. Based on variable importance for the RF-model, drought resistance has the highest importance among all the other inputs that is, 46% followed by erosion protection with 20%. Our study also points out that 33.76% of the land of the Country is still classed under a very high critical zone and without any immediate action; it may result in irreversible loss.

Automated summary

Desertification in India has spread from the west to the south, causing severe degradation in states like Rajasthan and Ladakh. The random forest model identifies drought resistance and erosion protection as the most important drivers of this phenomenon. Without immediate action, irreversible losses may occur on 33.76% of the country's land.