Rock Strength Prediction in Real-Time While Drilling Employing Random Forest and Functional Network Techniques

The rock unconfined compressive strength (UCS) is one of the key parameters for geomechanical and reservoir modeling in the petroleum industry. Obtaining the UCS by conventional methods such as experimental work or empirical correlation from logging data are time consuming and highly cost. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper utilized the help of artificial intelligence (AI) to predict (in a real-time) the rock strength from the drilling parameters using two AI tools. Random forest (RF) based on principal component analysis (PCA), and functional network (FN) techniques were employed to build two UCS prediction models based on the drilling data such as weight on bit (WOB), drill string rotating speed (RS), drilling torque (T), stand-pipe pressure (SPP), mud pumping rate (Q), and the rate of penetration (ROP). The models were built using 2333 data points from well (A) with 70:30 training to testing ratio. The models were validated using unseen dataset (1300 data points) of well (B) which is located in the same field and drilled across the same complex lithology. The results of the PCA-based RF model outperformed the FN in terms of correlation coefficient (R) and average absolute percentage error (AAPE). The overall accuracy for PCA-based RF was R of 0.99 and AAPE of 4.3%, and for FN yielded R of 0.97 and AAPE of 8.5%. The validation results showed that R was 0.99 for RF and 0.96 for FN, while the AAPE was 4% and 7.9% for RF and FN models, respectively. The developed PCA-based RF and FN models provide an accurate UCS estimation in real-time from the drilling data, saving time and cost, and enhancing the well stability by generating UCS log from the rig drilling data.

Automated summary

This study utilized artificial intelligence to predict rock strength in real-time, with a PCA-based random forest model outperforming a functional network model in terms of accuracy. The developed models provide an accurate estimation of UCS from drilling data, improving efficiency and well stability.