Characterizing Uncertainties in Ground Truth of Precipitation Over Complex Terrain Through High-Resolution Numerical Modeling

Ground observation of precipitation over complex terrain is subject to large uncertainties due to inadequate sampling. This study explores a method that combines limited gauge data and a high-resolution numerical simulation to quantify the precipitation uncertainties in central Himalaya. Specifically, the Coefficient of spatial Variability (CV) of precipitation and the minimum Number of Required Stations (NRS) to obtain areal-mean precipitation ground truth values within a 0.25 degrees area are investigated using fine-scale meteorological simulation at 1.5 km grid spacing. Evaluation over a densely-gauged area demonstrates comparable CV and NRS values between station observations and simulations. The simulated CV and NRS values in a larger area show a strong and positive dependence on each other and an expected positive (negative) correlation with topographic complexity (temporal scale). The proposed method sheds lights on evaluating precipitation products and holds promise for informing the layout of rain gauge networks in complex terrain.

Automated summary

This study examines a method combining limited gauge data and high-resolution numerical simulation to quantify precipitation uncertainties in the central Himalayas. The evaluation over a densely-gauged area shows comparable values between station observations and simulations for the Coefficient of spatial Variability (CV) and the minimum Number of Required Stations (NRS).