Journal
ENERGIES
Volume 14, Issue 9, Pages -Publisher
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/en14092364
Keywords
innovation; experience curve; learning investment; renewable energy; wave energy; forecasting
Categories
Funding
- The Energy Technology Partnership
- University of Edinburgh
- Wave Energy Scotland under the ETP Energy Industry Doctorate Programme
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [785921]
- H2020 Societal Challenges Programme [785921] Funding Source: H2020 Societal Challenges Programme
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Cost reductions are crucial for the development of nascent forms of Renewable Energy Technology (RET), with policy intervention playing a key role; the study demonstrates the significant value of radical innovation in long-term deployment scenarios.
Cost reductions in nascent forms of Renewable Energy Technology (RET) are essential for them to contribute to the energy mix. Policy intervention can facilitate this cost reduction; however, this may require a significant investment from the public sector. These cost reductions fall into two broad categories: (1) incremental cost reductions through continual improvements to existing technologies, and (2) radical innovation where technologies that significantly differ from the incumbents are developed. This study presents a modelling methodology to integrate radical innovation in RET experience curve and learning investment analysis, using wave energy as an example nascent RET. This aims to quantify the potential effects of radical innovation on the learning investment, allowing the value of successful innovation to be better analysed. The study highlights the value offered by radical innovations in long-term deployment scenarios for wave energy. This suggests that high-risk R&D efforts in nascent RET sectors, even with low success rates, could still present significant expected value in offsetting future revenue support.
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