Journal
COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE
Volume 184, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.compag.2021.106120
Keywords
Corn price; Neural network; Forecasting
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This study explores forecasting of daily corn cash prices from multiple states using neural network models, finding that incorporating futures prices improves accuracy and the models are robust and have potential for generalizability.
We explore the forecasting issue in a data set of daily corn cash prices from nearly 500 markets across sixteen states: North Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania. We focus on univariate neural network (NN) modeling and bivariate NN modeling with futures prices incorporated. Using simple NNs with twenty hidden neurons and two delays leads to forecasting of high accuracy for the one-day ahead horizon. Including futures prices in the models benefits cash price forecasting. These findings are robust to data splitting ratios for model training, validation, and testing, and to different algorithms employed for model estimates. The forecasting framework here is relatively easy to deploy and has potential to be generalized to other commodities. This study contributes to short-term forecasting users? information needs in decision making processes.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available