4.4 Article

Is Evolution in Response to Extreme Events Good for Population Persistence?

Journal

AMERICAN NATURALIST
Volume 198, Issue 1, Pages 44-52

Publisher

UNIV CHICAGO PRESS
DOI: 10.1086/714419

Keywords

extinction; evolutionary rescue; pulse disturbance; maladaptation

Funding

  1. National Science Foundation [DMS-1716803]
  2. Center for Population Biology (University of California, Davis)
  3. Banting (Canada) fellowships
  4. National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health [NIH R01 GM108779]

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Climate change intensifies environmental disturbances, affecting population size and extinction risk in finite populations under extreme events. More evolution can lead to greater maladaptation and slower population recovery, while heritability may either increase extinction risk in short extreme events or help populations persist in longer events. The buffering effect of phenotypic variance can outweigh the load it causes during severe events.
Climate change is predicted to increase the severity of environmental perturbations, including storms and droughts, which act as strong selective agents. These extreme events are often of finite duration (pulse disturbances). Hence, while evolution during an extreme event may be adaptive, the resulting phenotypic changes may become maladaptive when the event ends. Using individual-based models and analytic approximations that fuse quantitative genetics and demography, we explore how heritability and phenotypic variance affect population size and extinction risk in finite populations under an extreme event of fixed duration. Since more evolution leads to greater maladaptation and slower population recovery following an extreme event, greater heritability can increase extinction risk when the extreme event is short. Alternatively, when an extreme event is sufficiently long, heritability often helps a population persist. We also find that when events are severe, the buffering effect of phenotypic variance can outweigh the increased load it causes.

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