Interdecadal variation of potato climate suitability in China

A scientific description of climate suitability of crop distribution is of great significance to mitigate negative effects of climate change and ensure food security. We investigated for the first time the potential impact of climate change on potato distribution at a national scale. The interdecadal change of potato distribution in China in response to the climate change from 1961 to 2017 was estimated using the MaxEnt model. The annual precipitation, annual average minimum temperature, average temperature in the coldest month, and sunshine duration were selected to model the climate suitability of potato distribution. The climate optimum areas exhibited a shrinking trend, with proportion of acreage falling from 5.12 % in the 1960s to 3.49 % in the 2010s. Climate suitable areas showed the tendency to expand to the east and shrink to the north. As an illustration, the climate suitability in eastern part of North-central Region was increased, but was decreased in southern part of Southwest Region. The proportions of consistency between major planting areas and high climate suitability areas were decreased from 93.36 % in the 1980s to 79.62 % in the 2010s. The increase of potato acreage in low climate suitable areas such as Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Region, Southeast Region, and southern part of Southwest Region might bring an adverse effect to potato production. Given that the climate optimum areas were found in the marginal regions of mid-western Xinjiang province in the past 60 years, it might be potential areas for potato introduction. The evaluation of climate suitability could provide a theoretical reference for planting layout of potato, which was conducive to reducing the potential risk of climate change on potato production and developing a reasonable regionalization of climate suitability.

Automated summary

The study found that climate change has a potential impact on the distribution of potatoes in China, leading to a shrinking of climate suitable areas and expansion to the east while shrinking to the north. The consistency between major planting areas and high climate suitability areas decreased, and potato planting in low climate suitable areas may have adverse effects on production.