Projected economic burden of pancreatic cancer in Sweden in 2030

Background Pancreatic cancer is predicted to become the second most common cause of cancer-related death by 2030. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic burden of pancreatic cancer for the years 2018 and 2030 based on changing demographics and incidence rates in Sweden. Method The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Sweden and additional relevant data were obtained from official statistics. A linear regression model and the mean incidence rates 2008-2018 were applied to calculate the incidence in 2030. An economic model based on the human capital method was created to calculate the indirect cost of pancreatic cancer in 2018 and 2030. Costs associated with surgery, radiology, oncology, and palliative care constituted the direct costs. A sensitivity analysis was performed. Results The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Sweden in the year 2018 was 1352 patients and projected to between 1554 (+15%) and 1736 (+28%) in 2030. The total cost was calculated to euro125 million in 2018 and between euro210 million (+68%) and euro225 million (+80%) in 2030. The indirect cost in the <= 65-year-old group was euro328,344 in 2018 and between euro380,738 and euro382,109 per individual in 2030. Conclusions The economic burden of pancreatic cancer is expected to increase in Sweden by 2030 due to the increasing incidence of the disease and changing demographics. Pancreatic cancer is a growing health care problem in urgent need of advancements in prevention, early detection, treatment, and control of the disease.

Automated summary

This study estimated the economic burden of pancreatic cancer in Sweden, projecting an increase in burden by 2030 due to the rising incidence of the disease and changing demographics. Pancreatic cancer poses a growing healthcare challenge that requires advancements in prevention, early detection, treatment, and disease control.