A Statistical Model for Earthquake And/Or Rainfall Triggered Landslides

Natural hazards can be initiated by different types of triggering events. For landslides, the triggering events are predominantly earthquakes and rainfall. However, risk analysis commonly focuses on a single mechanism, without considering possible interactions between the primary triggering events. Spatial modeling of landslide susceptibility (suppressing temporal dependence), or tailoring models to specific areas and events are not sufficient to understand the risk produced by interacting causes. More elaborate models with interactions, capable of capturing direct or indirect triggering of secondary hazards, are required. By discretising space, we create a daily-spatio-temporal hazard model to evaluate the relative and combined effects on landslide triggering due to earthquakes and rainfall. A case study on the Italian region of Emilia-Romagna is presented, which suggests these triggering effects are best modeled as additive. This paper demonstrates how point processes can be used to model the triggering influence of multiple factors in a large real dataset collected from various sources.

Automated summary

When assessing the risk of landslides, it is important to consider the interactions between primary triggering events such as earthquakes and rainfall, rather than focusing solely on individual mechanisms. Elaborate models with interactions are needed to capture direct or indirect triggering of secondary hazards.