Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt

In this work the concept of fractional derivative is used to improve a mathematical model for the spread of the novel strain of corona virus disease COVID-19 in Egypt. We establish the dynamics model to predict the transmission of COVID-19. The results predicted by the model show a good agreement with the actual reported data. The effect of precautionary measures on the behavior of the model was studied and it was confirmed that the quarantine period should be long enough to achieve the desired result. (C) 2021 THE AUTHOR. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University.

Automated summary

In this study, the concept of fractional derivatives was utilized to enhance a mathematical model for predicting the transmission of COVID-19 in Egypt. Results showed good agreement with actual data, and highlighted the importance of precautionary measures in influencing model behavior, emphasizing the need for an extended quarantine period.