Uncovering the Evolution of Lead In-Use Stocks in Lead-Acid Batteries and the Impact on Future Lead Metabolism in China

This study aims to illustrate the evolution of lead in-use stocks, particularly in lead-acid batteries (LABs), and their impact on future lead metabolism in China. First, we used a bottom-up methodology to study the evolution of lead in-use stocks in China from 2000 to 2014. It was found that the lead in-use stocks increased from 0.91 to 7.75 Mt. The principal driving force of such change is the rapid development of LABs-driven electric vehicles. Then, we proposed three scenarios, low, baseline, and high in-use stocks, to project the lead demand and supply toward 2030. The results show that the LAB demand will decrease as a result of competition and replacement by lithium ion batteries. The lead demand in China will come to a peak around 2018-2020 under the three scenarios, then reduce to 3.7, 4.6, and 5.3 Mt/yr in 2030. Meanwhile, primary lead outputs will follow the increase of zinc production in China. Secondary lead recovered from spent LABs will also increase gradually. The overall unused lead stocks in 2030 will be 49.6, 44.8, and 41.2 Mt under the three scenarios, some 3.5-5.7 times as big as the lead in-use stocks. Thus, a large amount of lead will have to be safely stockpiled or exported in China.