Sensitivity analysis and optimal control of COVID-19 dynamics based on SEIQR model

It is of great curiosity to observe the effects of prevention methods and the magnitudes of the outbreak including epidemic prediction, at the onset of an epidemic. To deal with COVID-19 Pandemic, an SEIQR model has been designed. Analytical study of the model consists of the calculation of the basic reproduction number and the constant level of disease absent and disease present equilibrium. The model also explores number of cases and the predicted outcomes are in line with the cases registered. By parameters calibration, new cases in Pakistan are also predicted. The number of patients at the current level and the permanent level of COVID-19 cases are also calculated analytically and through simulations. The future situation has also been discussed, which could happen i f precautiona r y restrictions are adopted.

Automated summary

The SEIQR model has been used to predict the number of COVID-19 cases and the potential development of the epidemic based on data from the onset of the outbreak, as well as providing recommendations for precautionary restrictions that could be implemented in the future.