Trends in age-standardised prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus according to country from 1990 to 2017 and their association with socioeconomic, lifestyle and health indicators: an ecological study

Background There is a need for global public health strategies to effectively curb the ever-growing global diabetes population. This longitudinal ecological study was conducted to elucidate the country-specific trends of the age-standardised prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and their association with socioeconomic, lifestyle and health indicators. Methods Data pertaining to the age-standardised prevalence of T2DM (rates per 100 000) and socioeconomic, lifestyle and health indicators were obtained from several international databases. Data available from 1990 to 2017 for 139 countries with populations of 1 million or greater were analysed, followed by estimation of slopes for T2DM prevalence in each country. The longitudinal association between T2DM and the standardised variables of socioeconomic, lifestyle and health indicators was fitted using a generalised linear mixed-effects model with random intercept for each country and random slope for year. Results The country-specific age-standardised prevalence of T2DM decreased significantly in 9 countries, remained unchanged in 11 countries and increased significantly in 119 countries. The estimated standardised effect of age-standardised education for T2DM was the largest at -524.5 (SE; 109.9), followed by -514.8 (SE; 95.6) for physical activity and 398.8 (SE; 45.8) for body mass index (BMI) (P < 0.0001 for all). Conclusions The factors largely associated with global T2DM prevalence and trends were years of education, followed by physical activity and BMI. This study also provides basic resources for examining public health approaches to curb the increase in global T2DM prevalence.

Automated summary

This study found that the factors largely associated with global T2DM prevalence and trends were years of education, followed by physical activity and BMI. Education had the largest standardized effect on T2DM, followed by physical activity and BMI.