Analysis of the New Kuznets Relationship: Considering Emissions of Carbon, Methanol, and Nitrous Oxide Greenhouse Gases-Evidence from EU Countries

Decreased greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are urgently needed in view of global health threat represented by climate change. The goal of this paper is to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, considering less common measures of environmental burden. For that, four different estimations are done, one considering total GHG emissions, and three more taking into account, individually, the three main GHG gases-carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane gas (CH4)-considering the oldest and most recent economies adhering to the EU27 (the EU 15 (Old Europe) and the EU 12 (New Europe)) separately. Using panel dynamic fixed effects (DFE), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) techniques, we validate the existence of a U-shaped relationship for all emission proxies considered, and groups of countries in the short-run. Some evidence of this effect also exists in the long-run. However, we were only able to validate the EKC hypothesis for the short-run in EU 12 under DOLS and the short and long-run using FMOLS. Confirmed is the fact that results are sensitive to models and measures adopted. Externalization of problems globally takes a longer period for national policies to correct, turning global measures harder and local environmental proxies more suitable to deeply explore the EKC hypothesis.

Automated summary

This study aims to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and finds a U-shaped relationship in the short run when considering different greenhouse gas emission indicators and the EU 15 and EU 12 member states. However, the results only partially validate the EKC hypothesis in some EU 12 countries, showing sensitivity to models and measures adopted. The externalization of global problems requires a longer period for national policies to correct, making global measures more challenging and local environmental proxies more suitable for exploring the EKC hypothesis deeply.