Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
Volume 75, Issue -, Pages 439-458Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.018
Keywords
Backcasting; Ecosystem services; Normative vision; Social-ecological modeling; Policy strategies; Transition pathways
Categories
Funding
- CCES (Competence Centre Environment and Sustainability of the ETH Domain, Switzerland) as part of the inter- and transdisciplinary research project MOUNT-LAND
- European Union Seventh Framework Programme as part of the project OPERAs
- Swiss National Research Programme as part of the project OPSOL [NRP 68]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Ecosystem services (ES) modeling studies typically use a forecasting approach to predict scenarios of future ES provision. Usually, these forecasts do not inform on how specific policy alternatives will influence future ES supply and whether this supply can match ES demand important information for policy-makers in practice. Addressing these gaps, we present a multi-method backcasting approach that links normative visions with explorative land-use and ES modeling to infer land-use policy strategies for matching regional ES supply and demand. Applied to a case study, the approach develops and evaluates a variety of ES transition pathways and identifies types, combinations and timings of policy interventions that increase ES benefits. By making explicit ES sensitivity towards regional policy strategies and global boundary conditions over time, the approach allows to address key uncertainties involved in ES modeling studies. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available