Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
Volume 75, Issue -, Pages 263-272Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.027
Keywords
Camellias; Walnuts; Distribution; Consensus method; Ensemble model; Intercropping
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Funding
- project on Building effective water governance in the Asian Highlands, National Science Foundation of China [31270524]
- National Key Basic Research Program of China [2014CB954100]
- Applied Fundamental Research Foundation of Yunnan [2014GA003]
- CGIAR [CRP6.2, CRP6.4]
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Changing climate is likely to impact on both tree species and agroforestry systems in a variety of ways. A multi-model ensemble approach based on ecological niche modelling was used to understand the impact of climate on distribution of agroforestry trees in Yunnan Province of China. Future changes in distribution of 10 agroforestry tree species were projected using an ensemble of climate projections derived from the results of 19 Earth System Models provided by the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5. Our model explained suitable habitat, and identified potential locations for mixed agroforestry using selected species. The model suggested west and southwest Yunnan as important location for tea and alder-based agroforestry, while southern parts of Yunnan are better suited for tea and hog plum, and northern parts could support walnut-based agroforestry options. Agroforestry is an important adaptation option for climate change, which could benefiting farmers and enhancing environmental conservation and restoration of the landscape. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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