Does the Hook Structure Constrain Future Flood Intensification Under Anthropogenic Climate Warming?

Atmospheric moisture holding capacity increases with temperature by about 7% per degrees C according to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Thermodynamically then, precipitation intensity should exponentially intensify and thus worsen flood conditions as the climate warms. However, regional and global analyses often report a nonmonotonic (hook) scaling of precipitation and runoff, in which extremes strengthen with rising temperature up to a maximum or peak point (T-pp) and decline thereafter. The underlying cause of this hook structure is not yet well-understood, and whether it may shift and/or regulate storm runoff extremes under anthropogenic climate warming remains unknown. Here, we examine temperature scaling of precipitation and storm runoff extremes under different climate conditions using observations and large ensemble hydroclimatic simulations over mainland China. In situ observations suggest a spatially homogeneous, negative response of relative humidity to warming climates over 34.6% of the land area, and the remaining hook-dominated regions usually show a colder T-pp than that of precipitation or storm runoff extremes. The precipitation and streamflow series over mainland China's catchments throughout the 21st century are projected by a model cascade chain under a high-end emission scenario (RCP 8.5), which involves 31 CMIP5 climate models, 11 CMIP6 climate members, a daily bias correction method, and four lumped conceptual hydrological models. The CMIP5 ensemble projects that the hook structures shift toward warmer temperature bins, resulting in 10%-30% increases in storm runoff extremes over mainland China, while the CMIP6 ensemble projects more severe flood conditions in future warming climates.

Automated summary

The study investigates the impact of rising temperatures on precipitation and storm runoff extremes in mainland China, revealing a complex relationship between temperature and extreme precipitation and runoff events. While climate warming is projected to increase storm runoff extremes, the presence of hook structures in some regions indicates that extreme events may not continually intensify with rising temperatures.