Journal
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
Volume 149, Issue 5, Pages 1381-1401Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0262.1
Keywords
Maritime Continent; Kelvin waves; Madden-Julian oscillation; Extreme events; Flood events; Precipitation
Categories
Funding
- NSF [1724741]
- Ministry of Education and Science in Poland
- Years of Maritime Continent (YMC) project from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)
- Foundation for Polish Science
- European Union under the European Regional Development Fund
- NRL [PE0601153N, N00173-18-1G009]
- U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research
- Department of Energy [DE-AC05-76RL01830]
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/R012431/1, NE/R016704/1]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1724741] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- NERC [NE/R012431/1, NE/R016704/1] Funding Source: UKRI
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Equatorial waves and their interactions are precursors for extreme rain and flood events in southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Analysis of meteorological conditions and climatology reveals that CCKWs and CCERWs increase the probability of floods and extreme rain events, especially when they occur together.
On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on 22 January 2019 leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area are studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system that developed over the Java Sea. Low-level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92% of December-February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, while the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is 8 times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.
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