Journal
MATHEMATICAL MODELS & METHODS IN APPLIED SCIENCES
Volume 31, Issue 5, Pages 907-939Publisher
WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD
DOI: 10.1142/S0218202521500226
Keywords
Multiscale modeling; Markov chains; cellular automaton; COVID-19; incubation period; serial interval; population graph; social barriers; uncertainty quantification
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Funding
- Scuola Normale Superiore [SNS19 B FLANDOLI]
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A Markov chain individual-based model is used to study virus diffusion, taking into account virus growth within individuals and the complexity of contagion within a population. Careful parameter choice captures the statistical variability of quantities like incubation period, serial interval, and time series of infected people in Tuscany towns accurately.
A Markov chain individual-based model for virus diffusion is investigated. Both the virus growth within an individual and the complexity of the contagion within a population are taken into account. A careful work of parameter choice is performed. The model captures very well the statistical variability of quantities like the incubation period, the serial interval and the time series of infected people in Tuscany towns.
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